People across the continental U.S. suffered a record-breaking heatwaves in the first half of July 2024. (Aleksej Sarifulin/Getty Images/IStockphoto)
With geography already posing challenges for Midwestern forecasters, meteorologist Chris Gloninger says climate change has made traditional models obsolete and has voided historical precedents.
By Holly Edgell, The Midwest Newsroom
After measuring the accuracy of its official forecast on a regional level for years, the National Weather Service started compiling more detailed information about temperature forecasts in 2022. Using this data, the Washington Post calculated forecast accuracy in thousands of towns and cities.
The data shows that, together, the communities in the Midwest and Great Plains regions pose the greatest challenge in the country for forecasting hot days. The predictions for high temperatures are reliable only about two days into the future for these areas, the data shows. Communities in desert and coastal regions can rely on forecasts about six days into the future.
NWS sources in the article explained that colliding air masses in the middle of the country pose challenges for accurate forecasting.
The Washington Post article does not consider how climate change factors into forecast accuracy, but meteorologist Chris Gloninger does.
When it comes to predicting heat, climate change has made traditional models obsolete and has voided historical precedents, he told The Midwest Newsroom.
Chris Gloninger, now a consultant, worked for 18 years as a broadcast meteorologist in Rochester and Albany, New York; Saginaw, Michigan; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Boston, Massachusetts, and Des Moines, Iowa. (Cathy Danko/Provided)
“There’s no baseline for this. This is new territory,” Gloninger said.
The meteorologist is known for his blunt warnings about the impact of climate change, which angered audiences when he worked for television station KCCI in Des Moines, Iowa. He’s now a weather consultant based in Massachusetts specializing in climate change communication. He remains steadfast in advocating for policies that drive mitigation and adaptation to “the new normal.”
The Midwest Newsroom’s Holly Edgell spoke with Chris Gloninger about the role of climate change in forecasting high temperatures and other weather conditions. The interview has been edited for brevity and clarity
Holly Edgell: First off, I know that people are quick to criticize meteorologists when things don't turn out the way that you've predicted. What is your answer to that?
Chris Gloninger: When something goes wrong you're much more likely to remember that than when a forecast was accurate and it played out the way it was supposed to. We're reaching the theoretical limit to how far weather can be predicted. Essentially, we're at the point where we're not going to be getting ten to 15 day forecasts. Maybe we can fine tune days eight, nine and ten. But anything beyond that really doesn't hold accuracy and doesn't hold weight.
Edgell: You’ve forecasted the weather in the Midwest, including Iowa.
Gloninger: When I went to Des Moines to be chief meteorologist at KCCI we had our largest tornado outbreak in recorded history. It didn't happen in May or June. It happened in December 2021, a handful of days before Christmas. This is new territory, so I think that is where it is a challenge. While our models are keeping up with it, there's hesitation to forecast these records, even though the models are showing them.
Edgell: We have these historical records and weather patterns. But you’re saying that's all kind of up for grabs now, because we're in a new era where things are changing very quickly in terms of temperature and weather patterns.
Gloninger: Our forecast models can handle it. And sometimes they push us to forecast records. We are seeing these records being destroyed by wide margins. Not just a degree, but in some cases four, five, six degrees. Not just a record for the day, not even a record for the month. The temperature's never been this high in recorded history for any date.
Edgell: When you got into meteorology as your profession, did you have an inkling of climate change and its impact at that point?
Gloninger: I started in 2006, and the shift really came in the 2010s. That’s when we were starting to attribute extreme weather to climate change. I like to tell people that society was built on the idea that the climate was stable. Yes, we'd have highs and lows. Yes, we'd have extremes. But then take emissions and burning fossil fuels and put that into the equation. You're able to see just how big of a role they play, and that's an important part of the science. Figuring out what is caused by climate change and what isn't are equally important.
This story comes from the Midwest Newsroom, an investigative journalism collaboration that includes Iowa Public Radio, KCUR, Nebraska Public Media, St. Louis Public Radio and NPR.
Do you have a tip or question for us? Email midwestnewsroom@kcur.org.
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